- We assume talent is available.
- We assume our pay is competitive.
- We assume candidates will wait for us.
- We assume our people won't leave.
Then the market moves, and the plan falls apart.
Here's what moved this week alone:
- Moniepoint has ~500 open roles it cannot fill, despite shifting to hire only from Nigeria. The CEO admitted that the few people found were not up to global standards.
- The NLC Lagos State Council demanded the minimum wage rise from ₦85,000 to ₦225,000 – nearly a threefold increase.
- Nigeria's headline inflation rose to 15.69% in April, the second consecutive monthly increase.
- Unemployment and underemployment combined reached 42% nationally.
If your hiring plan didn't account for any of these signals, it's already outdated.
Here's how to use real market signals to review and fix your hiring plan right now.
Why Market Signals Belong in Your Hiring Plan
A hiring plan isn't a wish list. It's a strategic document that should reflect what's actually happening in the labour market, not what you hope is happening.
Market signals give you three things:
1. Early warning: You see shifts before they become emergencies. For example, if inflation is rising (now at 15.69%), you know employee purchasing power is shrinking. That's a retention risk you can address before people start leaving.
2. Competitive intelligence: you know what other businesses are doing. If a major player like Moniepoint is struggling to fill roles, you know the competition for quality candidates is fiercer than ever. That should change how aggressive your sourcing strategy needs to be.
3. Reality checks: You test your assumptions against data. Think you can hire a data analyst in two weeks for ₦250k? Market signals will tell you whether that's realistic or delusional.
The 5 Market Signals You Should Track (and How to Act on Them)
Signal 1: Talent availability
What to watch: Are other companies struggling to fill similar roles? Are vacancy rates rising or falling in your sector?
What this week tells us: Moniepoint has ~500 vacancies it cannot fill, even with significant resources. The company has stopped hiring outside Nigeria entirely, yet still can't find enough candidates meeting global standards. The CEO attributed the gap to structural weaknesses in education, changing values, and continued skilled migration abroad ("japa").
How to review your hiring plan: Look at every role on your hiring plan. Ask: Is there a known shortage of qualified people for this position? If yes, your plan needs:
- Longer sourcing timelines (add 2–4 weeks)
- Broader talent channels (don't rely only on job boards)
- Realistic expectations (you won't find perfect candidates quickly)
Action step: Red-flag any role that appears on "hard‑to‑fill" lists or where competitors are advertising repeatedly. For those roles, adjust your timeline and budget before you start.
Signal 2: Wage and compensation trends
What to watch: What are employees demanding? What are competitors paying? What's the minimum wage movement in your state?
What this week tells us: The NLC Lagos State Council has called for the minimum wage to rise from ₦85,000 to ₦225,000, a 165% increase. Labour cited rising inflation and economic pressure, noting that "the current wage has become inadequate due to the high cost of living." Meanwhile, labour unions have announced plans to begin renegotiating the national minimum wage (currently ₦70,000) by July 2026, with an initial demand of ₦154,000. Some states, like Imo, already pay above the national benchmark at ₦104,000.
How to review your hiring plan: Compare your offered salaries against these signals. If your lowest salaries are close to current minimum wages, you're vulnerable. The gap between current wages and labour demands tells you where pressure is building.
Action step: Flag any role where your offered salary is within 20% of the current minimum wage or significantly below labour demand figures. For those roles, either budget for an increase or accept you'll struggle to attract candidates.
Signal 3: Inflation and purchasing power
What to watch: How quickly is the cost of living rising? How does that affect your employees' real income?
What this week tells us: Headline inflation rose to 15.69% in April 2026, up from 15.38% in March, the second consecutive monthly increase after a brief easing period. Food inflation remains particularly painful at 16.06% year‑on‑year, with staples like yams, millet, garri, beans, and tomatoes all recording sharp price increases.
How to review your hiring plan: If your salary offers haven't kept pace with inflation, your real compensation is declining. That affects both your ability to attract new hires and retain existing ones.
Action step: For every role in your hiring plan, adjust the budgeted salary upward by at least the inflation rate (15.69%) from your baseline. If you can't, document that as a risk in your plan. Consider non‑salary support (transport allowances, meal subsidies) as alternatives.
Signal 4: The skills‑demand gap
What to watch: Is unemployment high, but talent still hard to find? That's the gap between available people and needed skills.
What this week tells us: Nigeria's composite PMI climbed to 56.4 points, the fifteenth straight month of expansion, yet employment growth remains marginal. Unemployment is projected to stay near 22.6% in 2026, and the combined rate of unemployment and underemployment reached 42% as of March 2026. Despite the high number of people available, many businesses cannot find candidates with the skills they need. The Federal Government has acknowledged this, with Vice President Kashim Shettima stating, "Nigeria does not have a talent problem. Until skills meet industry demand, job creation will remain below its full potential."
How to review your hiring plan: If you're struggling to fill roles despite many applicants, your problem isn't volume; it's the match between requirements and available skills.
Action step: For hard‑to‑fill roles, consider adding a training or upskilling pathway to your plan. Can you hire for potential and train for skill? That changes your candidate profile, your timeline, and your budget.
Signal #5: Retention risk
What to watch: Are your best people likely to stay? What would make them leave?
What this week tells us: Across multiple reports this week, one theme kept emerging: retention is the new recruitment. The "japa" drain continues; Nigeria is losing mid‑career talent not just to better salaries abroad, but to the exhaustion of operating in a system that makes excellence unnecessarily expensive. HR analysts predict that reskilling and upskilling will dominate the HR agenda for the rest of 2026 as organizations rethink traditional talent pipelines.
How to review your hiring plan: Your hiring plan shouldn't only be about filling new roles. It should account for expected attrition. If you don't know which of your current people might leave, you're planning blind.
Action step: Add an "expected attrition" column to your hiring plan. Estimate a percentage for each role (or use industry benchmarks). Then build those replacement hires into your plan – before people actually resign.
Putting It All Together: A Simple Review Framework
Use this four‑step process to review your hiring plan against market signals.
Step 1: Scan the signals weekly
Set aside 30 minutes every Friday to scan the market signals that matter to your business:
- Talent availability (who's struggling to hire?)
- Wage trends (what are people demanding?)
- Inflation (how fast is purchasing power eroding?)
- Skills‑demand gap (what's hard to find?)
- Retention indicators (who's at risk of leaving?)
Your Friday newsletter does this for you. That's why we publish it.
Step 2: Compare against your plan
For each signal, ask:
- Does my hiring plan account for this?
- If not, what's the gap?
- Is this a short‑term adjustment or a structural shift?
Step 3: Adjust your plan
Be specific. Don't just say "we need to pay more." Say:
- "Increase budget for data analyst role from ₦300k to ₦350k (inflation adjustment)."
- "Add two weeks to the sourcing timeline for the product manager role (tight market signal)."
- "Create upskilling pathway for junior developer role (skills gap signal)."
Step 4: Review monthly
Market signals change. Your hiring plan should, too. Set a monthly calendar reminder to run through this framework again. The businesses that win are the ones that adjust before the crisis hits.
The Bottom Line
A hiring plan that ignores market signals isn't a plan; it's a gamble.
The businesses that survive this talent crunch won't be the ones with the biggest recruitment budgets. They'll be the ones that pay attention to what the market is actually saying, adjust before emergencies hit, and build hiring plans that work in the real world, not in a spreadsheet from last year.
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P.S. The market moved last week. It will move again next week. The only question is whether your hiring plan will move with it or get left behind.
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